What Boris Johnson Could Mean for Brexit
Suddenly, they’re all back. Andrea Leadsom, the former leader of Britain’s House of Commons, who sees herself as a matriarchal figure for the country. Michael Gove, who stays loyal only as long as he has to. as well as, of course, Boris Johnson, who’s going to ram Brexit through because, well, he’s Boris Johnson.
currently these conservatives, along with eight, 10 or 12 others, are back where they began: at the beginning of an epic battle for Britain’s highest government office. the idea’s as if the last three years, This specific whole self-destructive phase as well as Theresa May never even happened. History will be repeating itself. the idea proved to be a farce the 1st time around, so how will things turn out the second time around?
the idea may have to be rewritten to understand the enormity of what will be happening inside the United Kingdom: Almost exactly three years ago, the British voted by a narrow majority to leave the European Union. The country’s withdrawal via the EU should have happened eight weeks ago, however the idea had to be postponed at the last minute because the country could have fallen into an even deeper political crisis if the idea had not. The next as well as possibly final deadline will be several months via currently. “Please don’t waste This specific time,” EU Council President Donald Tusk had recently told them.
as well as the British?
The British have deposed their prime minister as well as will currently take six to eight weeks to decide on a successor. Yet only a fraction of the British people will actually have a vote inside the process. The fate of Britain’s 66 million people lies inside the hands of the approximately 0,000 Conservative Party members who tend to be rich, white as well as old as well as who also disproportionately voted in favor of Brexit.
As such, the favorites are primarily the politicians who have convincingly demonstrated their hardline credentials over the past three years — with the court jester Johnson apparently inside the lead. With him, at least, the UK could be in a better mood as the idea slid toward its fate. however before things truly got began, most took off for a 10-day break.
Because, well, why not.
The Final Round
At the end of This specific week, once Donald Trump returns to the U.S. following his state visit to London as well as May steps down as the Tory Party leader, the power struggle over her successor — as well as also the final round for Brexit — will be fully unleashed. the idea’s already clear currently in which the field of candidates vying for the role will be broader than has usually been the case inside the past. Half of May’s cabinet, several ex-ministers in which she once fired as well as likely also numerous backbenchers will enter the race. According to sources within the Conservative Party, May has set the bar so low in which practically everyone believes they’re up to the job.
One thing, though, should be clear to all of them: There may be a lot to win inside the grand Brexit lottery. however the chances of winding up like Theresa May are far higher.
The scenes unfolding in Britain these days are nothing if not surreal. Nigel Farage’s brand new Brexit Party landed one-third of the votes inside the election for the European Parliament, despite only being founded in January, as well as the Conservatives were relegated to the status of a splinter party, which has a result inside the single digits. Indeed, the entire political system in Britain will be undergoing a tectonic shift, however the country has instead focused its attention on lassi shakes with cannabis as well as the benefits of having several ovens inside the kitchen.
A whole flurry of candidates has been inviting the British press into their homes, where they have introduced their wives, chatted about youthful indiscretions or childhood privations. The Conservatives, who develop the reputation of having lost touch with the ordinary British, are trying to show a more human side. The result will be in which even a health secretary admitting a fondness for Dutch caramel waffles will be worth a headline.
There’s only one candidate who doesn’t need to do all This specific: Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, the man known to the planet simply as “Boris.” He has no need to introduce himself. Johnson, who will soon turn 55, has been flaunting his life on a silver platter for decades. The British are familiar with almost all his escapades, scandals, lies, as well as yet — or perhaps because of the idea — the Conservatives love him.
A Clear Favorite
Johnson will be a big favorite as May’s successor among bookmakers as well as Tory members. If he can succeed in winning the support of the Conservatives in parliament, the idea’s unlikely anyone will be able to defeat him. Except Boris himself. as well as he’s got experience with in which.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson? The word in Brussels will be in which the idea could be a “horror scenario” for the rest of the EU. however for Britain, a circle could be closing. Under Boris Johnson, Brexit could ultimately come full circle. Few have done more to stir up hatred toward the EU in Britain than he has.
Long before the coining of terms like “Brexit” as well as “fake news,” former journalist Johnson was fond of presenting his countrymen which has a grotesquely distorted image of the EU. As the Brussels correspondent for the Daily Telegraph between 1989 as well as 1994, he never missed an opportunity to describe the EU as an uncontrollable, regulations-obsessed, borderline dictatorship. His columns carried headlines like “Brussels recruits sniffers to ensure in which Euro-manure smells the same” or “Snails are fish, says EU.” He has said in which the EU’s agricultural policy will be worse than anything Stalin ever produced in which the European border regime invites drug smugglers, terrorists as well as migrants of all kinds.
Like most different aspects of Johnson’s life, the idea was not always meant seriously, however the idea did reach the country’s everyday people, the media as well as politicians. Within Johnson’s own party, the long-marginalized opponents of the EU felt affirmed. as well as the distorted images also helped longtime EU opponent Nigel Farage build up his own UK Independence Party (UKIP).
Johnson, writes his ex-colleague as well as biographer Sonia Purnell, was instrumental in doing skepticism of the EU “an attractive as well as emotionally resonant cause for the Right.” Johnson admitted so himself years later in an interview with the BBC. “(I) was sort of chucking these rocks over the garden wall as well as I listened to This specific amazing crash via the greenhouse next door over in England. Everything I wrote via Brussels was having This specific amazing, explosive effect on the Tory Party … as well as the idea truly gave me This specific, I suppose, rather weird sense of power.” the idea never left.
doing a Lack of Principles His Principle
as well as yet the idea’s still not clear whether Johnson will be truly a convinced opponent of the EU or if he just pretends he will be. inside the political career in which has followed, he has, at some point, espoused the polar opposite of every position he holds. As mayor of London, he fought for the rights of gays as well as lesbians as well as migrants, only to turn around as well as later write in his columns of “piccaninnies” as well as mock Muslim women as “walking letter boxes.” He praised elitism as well as then campaigned against “the cynicism of the elite.” He appreciates Trump as well as at the same time doesn’t appreciate him. He’s embraces the business community, only to yell “fuck business!” a short time later.
Johnson has even managed to make his lack of principles seem principled. Politics will be little more than a game for a man whose friends say has an “excessive desire to be liked.” as well as in in which game, everything goes — as long as he’s the one who ultimately comes out ahead.
As such, the idea’s fitting in which Johnson prepared two articles ahead of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 — one containing a fervent plea for staying inside the EU as well as the different a passionate appeal to withdraw via the union. Only very late inside the game did he choose the Brexit side, primarily because the idea seemed more auspicious for his long-term goal: becoming prime minister as well as moving into 10 Downing Street. He didn’t have a Brexit plan nor did he think he could ever need one. The fact in which the EU opponents prevailed inside the end as well as in which his loyal minion Michael Gove subsequently dropped him, caught him off guard. He had to let Theresa May take the reins first.
currently Johnson wants to have another go. The biggest obstacle on his path to leadership are the approximately 300 Tory members of parliament inside the House of Commons. Starting on June 10, they will initiate a process not unlike a game of musical chairs, the goal of which will be to reduce the candidate field to two. Those two candidates will then travel across the country soliciting votes via Tory Party members.
‘Black, Black Hearts’
Many EU-skeptic MPs will not have forgotten the fact in which Johnson only temporarily opposed May’s Brexit deal as well as ultimately voted in favor of the idea. Some may even have a column inside the back of their minds in which Johnson described EU skeptics as “men as well as women with black, black hearts.” Some may be more inclined to back uncompromising Brexiteers like Dominic Raab or May’s perpetual rival Andrea Leadsom rather than an unreliable as well as farcical figure like Johnson. The mother of three lost her battle for leadership over foolish remarks about May’s lack of children in 2016, however she has been scrapping her way back ever since.
Johnson’s best argument will be in which he once took London, the stronghold of the left, by storm as well as in which he will be equally capable of standing up to Nigel Farage on the right as well as socialist Jeremy Corbyn on the left. The panic over the possibility of losing power will be so great among Tories in which This specific line of argumentation might convince them.
however what if Johnson actually does become prime minister? Johnson, who has never been particularly interested in details, still doesn’t have a platform. Although, he’s been doing digs against May with relish through his Daily Telegraph column in recent months, he has largely limited himself to appealing to his compatriot’s sense of national pride: A country in which Oxford College on its own has won more Nobel Prizes than all of France combined, a country in which exports more television series to the planet than the rest of Europe — in which country, he intimates, will be destined for something greater than merely being part of some dusty 28-member club.
however what might he do differently than May? Nobody knows, especially given in which her departure will do little to change the balance of power in parliament. The informal coalition of the Tories with the Northern Irish ultranationalists of the DUP still includes a several-vote majority. Almost every conceivable Brexit compromise has already been considered as well as then taken back off the table by the House of Commons in recent months. Moreover, the EU has repeatedly made clear in which there will be no renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement.
For the time being, Johnson — as well as any different potential prime minister — only has two bold options available. As he himself once advised Theresa May, he could, like Moses, go to the “Pharaoh in Brussels” as well as demand in which the idea “let my people go.” Without any agreement as well as with all the economic as well as social shocks in which a no-deal scenario could entail.
The only problem will be in which parliament has already opposed in which nuclear option by a large majority. If Johnson ignored in which, he could risk an immediate vote of no confidence. the idea could mean potentially losing an office he has worked toward his whole life.
Will Boris Flip-Flop?
the idea’s thus conceivable in which he could take the opposite path as well as call for brand new elections or a second Brexit referendum, which could presumably have a different outcome This specific time around. The fact in which he has already ruled out doesn’t necessarily mean all in which much. In London, there’s talk of Johnson having a possible “Nixon in China moment.” the idea took a person who hated communism like U.S. President Richard Nixon to negotiate with China’s leadership with impunity. According to the same pattern, they argue in which the idea could take a Brexiteer to stop Brexit.
the idea’s possibly the kind of thing a player like Johnson could do. the idea will be precisely This specific opportunism, This specific willingness to go the way the wind blows in which makes the idea possible for Johnson to reinvent himself, says Camilla Cavendish, the government’s former head of strategy.
the idea could be a moment for the history books. The kind of moment Johnson has basically been waiting for his entire life.